“How Congress is losing more than polls”, “BJP now a front runner in Lok Sabha polls”, “2009 will be the year of change”, “Congress loss raises questions about central leadership” etc have been the top headlines this morning. After reading these headlines, one might imagine that the Congress lost Andhra Pradesh, and not Karnataka, to the BJP. Of course, you would not be surprised by these headlines, if you know Indian ‘news’ media, as well as the average Joe knows!
Let me start with a few random facts: Out of a total of 224 seats, the BJP won 110, the Congress 80, and the JD(S) 28. Others, consisting 4 Congress rebels, 1 BJP Rebel and 1 JD(S) Rebel, have won 6. While the BJP’s vote share has increased from 28.3% four years earlier to 33.9% now, the Congress even now is ahead in vote share with 34.6%. The BSP has marginally improved its vote share by around 1% to nearly 2.7%, but has only managed to come second in two seats. Bangalore had only 16 seats last time, whereas this time, post de-limitation, the number has risen to 28. The BJP has won 17 of these seats. The BJP was the single largest party in the legislative assembly last time with 79 seats and is the single largest party this time too with 110 seats. So that is an increase of 31 seats! (The BJP contested 26 seats more this time.) The Congress was the second largest party last time with 65 seats and is the second largest party this time around too with 80 seats. So that is an increase of 15 seats as well! These gains in seats for both the National parties have come at the expense of the prominent regional party. (Even now, a Congress-JD(S) Coalition with Congress and JD(S) rebels would have absolute majority in the legislative assembly!)
Before I proceed any further, let me clarify that I am not trying to belittle the BJP’s success. They have worked extremely hard for this result and all credit should go to Mr. Jaitley, Mr. Yeddyurappa and the party cadre for their efforts. In fact, compare this: Mr. Advani, Mr. Modi, Mrs. Sushma Swaraj, Mr Rajnath Singh and Mr Venkaiah Naidu addressed almost 200 public meetings in the state, whereas Dr Manmohan Singh addressed one, Mrs Sonia Gandhi addressed six and Mr Rahul Gandhi addressed two. The fact that four of the Congress rebels have won, as against only one each of BJP and JD(S) rebels also shows that candidate selection was more of a problem for the Congress than the BJP and JD(S). So kudos to the BJP team!
However, the media projection of this result as a major turn-around in fortunes for both the Congress-led coalition as well as the BJP-led alliance is baseless and imaginary. Why do I say so? Simple reason! The Congress today holds only 8 out of the 28 Lok Sabha seats from Karnataka, whereas the BJP holds 18 of them. And you know what, if all the assembly segments in Karnataka voted in the coming Lok Sabha elections exactly as they voted this time, the BJP would win only 10 of the 28 seats, whereas the Congress will win 14 of them. That has to do with the Congress having its votes spread wide across the state. Turn-around in fortune? For whom, is the real question!
As for the apparent failure of the Congress central leadership, consider this: Mr. Rahul Gandhi had started his Karnataka tour with a stay in the tribal dominated Chamarajnagar district and incidentally, all four seats in the Chamarajanagar region have gone to the Congress this year. Last time around, the tally was zero! Among the other districts he toured, Mysore has brought 7 out of 11 seats and Gulbarga 7 out of 13 seats to the Congress kitty. These are areas where the Congress has gained at the expense of JD(S). In Mangalore, which was one of the few areas where Mr. Gandhi addressed election meetings, Congress wrested two seats from the BJP, taking its tally to 4 out of 8. In fact, at least part of the credit for Congress not losing much of its vote share to the BSP must be given to him. The BSP was expected to hurt the Congress party the way it did in Punjab and Gujarat, but this time around, in Karnataka, the Congress has held on to its ground.
On the other hand, should the Congress win even two of the three BJP ruled states that are going to polls later this year, the BJP can stop dreaming about returning to power in 2009. The simple reason is that these are states which have contributed to the BJP strength in the Lok Sabha. After a decade of Congress rule in Delhi, it is very unlikely that Sheila Dikshit’s Congress will win Delhi. But, given the level of anti-incumbency, only Congressmen can prevent the Congress party from winning the three BJP ruled states. Even the most optimistic BJP insider expects a drop in tally from these states. That’s only being realistic! But, if that’s so, from where will BJP make up for the loss of strength here? Gujarat? The BJP’s tally can’t go up far beyond its current high numbers! Bihar? JD(U), its ally, has almost decimated the party there. Maharashtra? Post-Pramod Mahajan, the state BJP unit is yet to find its feet. The fact of the matter is that there are no major states left for BJP to improve its tally significantly.
There are several states from where the tally of Congress and its allies can reduce significantly in the Lok Sabha elections next year: Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Bihar, for instance. But, there are also several states where they have scope to increase their tally: Almost all of the Gangetic Plains, including Uttar Pradesh, where an SP-Congress alliance might unify the non-BSP vote. Since the BSP has almost completely eroded the BJP’s base in UP, the only alternative to the BSP would be an SP-Congress combine. The Congress is also likely to do much better in both West Bengal and Kerala, where the Congress’s gains will be at the expense of the Left parties.
In other words, unless dramatic events occur between now and the election date, the UPA’s tally is not likely to be very different from what it is now. On the other hand, the BJP’s tally is likely to be lower although the tally of its allies might go up. In fact, whether it is Maharashtra or Bihar or Tamilnadu, the BJP needs its allies much more than its allies need it. Therefore, in these states, the BJP is even likely to contest in fewer seats than it did last time around. The change in relative strength within NDA also may open up the possibility of some of the current NDA allies joining UNPA to try their luck in forming a coalition with the support of both the BSP and the Left.
Of course, what is likely to be left of UNPA is difficult to be imagined now! If SP allies with the Congress and AIADMK allies with the BJP, it doesn’t make sense for TDP and AGP to stay without allies at the Centre. These are parties which can’t ally with the Congress due to their regional realities. If TDP allies with the BJP at the Centre, it cannot ally with Left parties at the state level and vice versa. Without allies, TDP cannot defeat the Congress in AP in the near future. Chiranjeevi’s political entry will have its own repercussions too. If Chiranjeevi's party and TRS allies with the BJP, the Congress may lose few seats, but that alliance may wipe out the TDP-Left combine in Andhra Pradesh.
The number of seats lost by the Congress and gained by the BJP allies in Andhra Pradesh would be a decisive factor in the next Union elections. But, as of now, the political situation in Andhra Pradesh is far from clear. A BJP-TRS alliance in Telengana might look winnable on paper, but a Reddy-Muslim consolidation could mean Congress holding its ground. Will Chiranjeevi take away more votes from the Congress or from the TDP? If there is a quadrangular fight as expected, will there be much of a dent in the Congress tally? Even the by-election results expected next week will not give us a clear picture.
To answer the question of what the outcomes of Karnataka state elections imply for the National parties, let me make a few observations. One, the Congress has indeed suffered from not projecting - and the BJP has gained from projecting - a Chief Ministerial candidate. But, this will hardly be an issue in the Lok Sabha elections, as the Prime Ministerial candidates of both the alliances are known. And that is where the lesson to be taken from this election is interesting. Mr. Advani is no Vajpayee and if it is a personality contest between Dr Manmohan Singh and Mr. L. K. Advani, the BJP shouldn’t be dreaming of a contest. Two, any party that needs to win the next election should build its grassroots organizational structure. I believe that Mr. Gandhi’s tour helped the Congress party only because it revitalized the party organization at the grassroots in some of those areas he visited. That has paid off! Three, election management has become increasingly important and any party who ignores this lesson, does it at its own peril. Anyone who underestimates the importance of Mr. Jaitley’s role in BJP’s victory is choosing not to read the writing on the wall. Mr. Modi in Gujarat and Mr. Yeddyurappa in Karnataka certainly had their significance, but the one who has made the best use of these resources for the BJP is Mr. Jaitley. You can’t take that away from him.
I am not here to speculate on the stability of the new government to be formed in Karnataka, but any event that causes popular disappointment with the new government’s performance will be good enough to hand over power back to the Congress party on a platter. Depending on your political leaning, you can either feel happy that four years after Mr. S. M. Krishna lost the elections, the Congress has still not recovered fully or feel relieved that the Congress’ party’s vote base and its social coalition have still not been seriously eroded in Karnataka. If the central and state leadership of the Congress party can get their acts together, the party’s tally can only go up in 2009. Will that be good enough for the UPA to retain power at the Centre is an entirely different question!
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